By Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir
It is a routine in many societies to look into the horoscope, visit the fortune tellers and seek future knowledge from peers and murshids. The practice is abundant in our own society and many have faith in foretelling the future events despite the religion negating any such powers vested in any individual. Let me talk about the Muslim world first. The year is related to an especially important country of the Muslim world, Turkey. At the end of World War 1, the victorious powers forced Turkey to enter into a treaty, Treaty of Lausanne, the earlier version of that being the Treaty of Sevres.
Treaty of Lausanne was signed in 1923 and had a life of 100 years. Thus, the treaty will expire in 2023 and with it a can of worms will be opened. Turkey will be freed of many of its obligations under the treaty and will have more freedom of maneuver in the international arena. The most significant part of the treaty was that Turkey lost control of large parts of Ottoman Empire in Europe, Middle East and Africa. The Trillion-Dollar question is, did Turkey lose control of these parts of erstwhile Ottoman Empire for the life of the treaty or forever? It is for experts in international law to interpret the treaty, but it is for sure that there will be divided opinion on the matter as is the case with all matters referred to experts in any field.
The various (and likely opposing) interpretations of the treaty, post its demise, is what is causing jitters in international arena and consequently shaping the world presently. The Middle East including Iraq and Syria (and of course Israel) is the region likely to become center stage for different reasons. The State of Qatar is fast becoming the key to future wrangling in the region, as by some accounts, the Turks consider the Qataris (among Arabs) to be the only real descendants of the Ottomans.
It is also a historic fact, that many of the current Arab Dynasties abetted the dissection of Ottoman Empire at the hands of victorious WW1 powers. It is probably for this reason alone that there has been a brewing animosity between this one state and rest of the Arab World. The current process of normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries could possibly be because the future (post 2023), is likely to witness these countries to be in confrontation with Turkey.
By no stretch of imagination am I saying that Turkey is going to lay claim over the entire Arabian Peninsula but then I am also no expert of international law and international treaties. The only recent example that can be quoted in this context is Hong Kong and its reversion to Chinese rule after the demise of the treaty between the British and the Chinese.
However, my cursory reading of that treaty tells me of some basic differences between the British-Chinese Treaty regarding Hong Kong and the treaty of Lausanne. What specific clauses of Treaty of Lausanne will be used by the Turks to justify their stand on erstwhile Ottoman territories will become clear after 2023 but jostling for positions has already started. The sad part is that whatever may happen post 2023, Muslim World will be more divided compared to what it is today, and the fault lines have already started to appear.
Year 2023 is also of huge significance for Pakistan for different reasons. The year is going to witness monumental events, the like of which has never been witnessed in the history of Pakistan. Ordinarily these events would be routine matter in the life of a country, but these attain huge significance in the context of the region and the internal dynamics of Pakistan. The three most important pillars of state viz. the parliament, the higher judiciary and the establishment will witness changes in the higher echelons. Next general elections will happen in 2023, a new Chief Justice of the Supreme Court will be in place, and the Army Chief will be changed.
Somebody (a Pakistani politician) said that general elections shake the founding pillars of a country, add to that the change in Army hierarchy and projected appointment of a new Chief Justice and the year sends shivers down my spine. There are many a slip between the cup and the lip, but ordinarily speaking these events will have profound impact on the future of Pakistan.
The acrimony between the government and opposition is at a peak, never witnessed before and also allegations against the establishment have never been so explicit and both these aspects of internal politics are going get further poisoned as the election 2023 nears. The Supreme Court is slated to be headed by an honourable judge whose actions and decisions hitherto display a certain line of thinking that can become a major cause of friction in the future.
The honourable judge has lowered the esteem of the judiciary by his conduct, utterances and actions, particularly the infamous judgement in the ‘Hudaibiya’ case and lately some personal financial matters. If things continue in the same vain, there is bound to be a friction between the law and the dispensers of law.
It goes without saying that no state can tolerate or indeed endure such clear dichotomy between how the law is administered for the rich and corrupt and how it is forced upon the poor and helpless. It is these three events scheduled to happen in 2023 that must be a source of great anxiety to all sane and sensible citizens of Pakistan and we must keep our fingers crossed and await the year anxiously.
The year 2023, thus is ominous for Pakistan, the Muslim World and the entire region from shores of Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea littoral. How the statesmen of the countries of the region tackle the monumental changes will decide the future of Muslims and Muslim countries.
Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir, Ex. Chief of Naval Staff.