By : Tanzeela Khalil
Imran Khan’s victory in the 2018 general elections has ingrained an atmosphere of positivity in Pakistan. The victory speech delivered on 26 July 2018 focused on human development, tax reforms, strengthening the institutions, ensuring accountability, improving foreign relations particularly with India and resolving the much protracted Kashmir issue.
Resolution of outstanding disputes and resumption of bilateral dialogue with India was seen as a common point in the election manifestoes of not just PTI but popular parties like PPP and PML (N) also. Once Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and PM Narendra Modi assumed Power in Pakistan and India, initially they shared pleasantries and it was expected that the relations will improve but the Pakistani efforts later on were met only with rebuffs and hostile statements. This enthusiastic behavior of the newly formed governments on both sides is more related to formalities and offers lesser substance.
However, it remains to be seen what practical steps the new government will take to pursue this objective.
As the elections are also due in India next year, history suggests that BJP might use anti Pakistan rhetoric to win popular support. This pattern has proved to be effective in winning the polls in Gujarat elections in 2017. Unlike in India, anti India sentiment does not feature in election campaigns here in Pakistan. If Indian political parties continue to use Pakistan bashing as a recipe for their win, it will undermine the efforts to improve relations under the prospective leadership of Imran Khan.
Another challenge to Imran Khan’s flexible approach towards India can be the enhanced and rising domestic pressure within Pakistan. Considering the fact that one of the general perceptions against Nawaz Sharif was the sentiment that he had connections with several Indian personnel. However, the intensity of such domestic pressure is lesser as compared to India which was also visible in President Musharraf’s era when he adopted a compromised approach towards Vajpayee led BJP government in India.
Imran has vowed to take two steps forward in return for India’s one step. However, this will work only if the foundations of new government in India are not based on anti Pakistan rhetoric. Therefore, the improvement in relations with India should not be expected before the elections are held in India.
The meetings between the ex-PM Nawaz Sharif and Modi in 2016 were seen as indication of improvement in the bilateral relationship and it was anticipated that the relationship between the two countries would move forward in a positive direction. However, the Pathankot and Uri attacks hurt the aspirations of the two PMs in normalizing the Indo-Pak relations.
This refers to a fact that normalization of Indo-Pak relationship is not just hostage to change in leadership but other factors of instability as well which include; the issue of terrorism, non-resolution of Kashmir issue, growing conventional asymmetry and aggressive doctrines. The much anticipated dialogues have been stalled either because of Indian hard-lined stance on terrorism or Pakistan’s unwillingness to compromise on its principled stance on Kashmir.
India’s continued efforts to highlight the terrorism related allegations frequently and repeatedly at the international forums indicates that Modi administration is not willing to recognize Pakistan’s contributions and its resilience to fight terrorism in the region. Keeping the eastern border peaceful and relations with India manageable is more useful for the eradication of insurgency and terrorism from Pakistan’s western border than responding to the repeated Indian provocations.
On Kashmir issue the present Indian government ‘instead of addressing the issue’ has aggravated the situation even more. Year 2016-17 witnessed extreme human rights violations in Kashmir from Indian forces which unfortunately were gone unnoticed. In this milieu, the path towards peace for both states will not be a piece of cake to have.
In the past, India and Pakistan have concluded several bilateral agreements or arrangements to reduce the risk of conflict. However, the outcomes mostly remained limited because of poor implementation. A way forward for the new governments in Pakistan and India can be the institutionalization of dialogue process which shall not be hostage to changes in the government or any particular security situation arising on either side of the border.
Pakistan’s approach has always been not to promote the crises but to mitigate it. Pakistan has continued to propose Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR) for establishment of durable peace, avoidance of an arms race and enhancing regional stability. However, India has continued to reject these proposals while attempting to focus on the issue of terrorism alone without going into the root-causes of the phenomenon.
The new governments in Pakistan and India are less likely to have a very positive impact on the nature of bilateral relations till the time some major compromises are made by the new leadership from both sides. Until and unless both the states see value in cooperating with each other and acknowledge each others’ efforts no solution can be forthcoming.