Between Pakistan and India – Brief Review
By Brig (R) Agha A. Gul
A Pakistani TV anchor explained effects of a likely nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. It was limited to giving out likely causality figures only and thus was misleading. Nuclear weapons are not like any other explosive. They are a totally different arsenal. This Paper aims at elaborating the effects and the dynamics of the detonation of a nuclear bomb on urban target over a few hours, only.
I wish to point out some critical effects which are beyond the usual counting of the dead and wounded. However, to assess the full impact over short and long term, indeed for several years, a much lengthy study is required. Even my comments are thus limited in scope. These comments are Not Pakistan’s official stand, which incidentally I do not know.
To start with, I have been noticing that Indian politico-military leadership for years now has been given nuclear-war related statements in a cavalier style, creating a strong suspicion that they are ignorant of the peculiarities of a nuclear weapon and strategic impact of a nuclear exchange. Are they?
At least the Indian military should know what it implies. The result of this cavalier attitude can be a repeat of Balakot type attack on Pakistan, albeit nuclear this time. The Indian Air Chief knew what was being asked of him by his political master. It seems, as a professional, rather than refuse, he directed the attack at an empty ridge. If this is not true then the Indian Air Force is grossly incompetent as it failed to hit the ordered target.
There was a statement by PM IK that India was planning to launch a missile attack on three cities of Pakistan in retaliation to its two intruding jet fighters which were shot down by PAF. The attack was cancelled, presumably when Pakistan informed the US that it will immediately retaliate.
Does Indian politico-military leadership not realise that Pakistan’s air defence will presume any Indian missile in the air directed against it as a nuclear missile? There will be no time to waste in ascertaining the nature of missile after its impact. Consequently, it will inform the National Command Authority that Indian missiles are flying towards Pakistan. The NCA will have only minutes to retaliate, of course with nuclear missiles.
The nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India will not follow the erstwhile doctrinal models of NATO-Warsaw Pact gradual escalation from counter force to counter value targets.
In our peculiar operational environment, and given the cavalier attitude of Indian leadership on record towards use of Nuclear weapons, India will start by attacking counter value targets and Pakistan will be forced to retaliate in kind. In matter of minutes, at best hours, the two countries, with conventional forces more or less still intact, will settle down to grapple with an operational environment without nuclear weapons.
But the situation on ground will not allow any grappling by the conventional forces. The leadership in all probability would have been decapitated. The left over armed forces and public will be like headless chickens. War will almost immediately come to an end with millions of dead and millions more wounded on both sides.
Millions will be blinded by the nuclear flash in a micro second, millions will be burnt instantly by the heat wave, millions will be crushed by the over-pressures, and millions will be lifted and thrown away to their death by the tremendous nuclear blasts. Localities around ground zero for miles will instantly catch fire and then within 3 minutes the invisible radiation will start spreading circumstantially followed by nuclear fallout driven by gravity and the winds.
Besides normal winds, the nuclear detonations will create their own stormy winds for several miles. Electromagnetic Pulse will instantly burn all electronic circuits for several miles, crashing flying machines, stopping all transport, killing all communications and making all medical equipment having any electronic parts unserviceable. Electricity and gas supply will stop. Tube wells will stop functioning and there will be soon no drinking water, no fuel to cook.
Those who die within 3 minutes will be very lucky. They rest will have no medication, no doctors, no water for de-contamination due to radiation and radiation dust. They will not be able to move if they are seriously wounded and no medical evacuation will be possible. Those away from ground zero and not-wounded or walking-wounded will have to go on foot where ever they may wish to go.
Those trying to flee away from ground zero will choke the roads, left over facilities and start fighting for the meager logistics left to survive. Lack of drinking water and lack of food will go on killing all around. Looting and murder for food and water will start. Police and government will cease to exist all around ground zero. Nuclear detonations on ports or near them will stop all imports and exports, possibly for several months if not more.
Possibly after weeks, local governments will start emerging. Provincial and central governments will be non-existent for quite some time. US will dust off its voluminous contingency plans waiting for this day, how to now rush aid to the two belligerents incapable of even providing basic necessities to its survivors. It will decide to wait. Never mind Trump’s affection for Modi!
UNSC will hold an emergency meeting, not for helping hapless citizens of these crippled countries, but on how to limit the nuclear radiation, massive dust cloud spreading fast all over the globe and beyond the stratosphere, the aftereffects of the pulse of tremendous heat released by possibly two hundred nuclear bombs, with a collective might of at least some 4000 KT explosive! I hope Modi and his military commanders understand it? Never mind if the Indian public does not, because they are not the ones talking about attacking Pakistan by nuclear weapons in the First Strike. So far as Indian Defence Minister’s latest Don Quixote type statement is concerned that India has given up on the doctrine of No First Use.
He should know that Pakistan now has Triad Response Capability. Pakistan armed forces also know about Nuclear Decapitation Strategy. India can employ Nuclear Weapons in a first strike, it will be responded in kind faster than India can imagine. Pakistan, confronted with a bully which is 7 times bigger, is imbued by Masada mindset since long. It is not afraid of confrontation and being destroyed while it will destroy the bully all the same. India, especially its politico-military leaders needs to educate themselves on the science and dynamics of nuclear weapons and strategic nuclear exchange, or else, it will end up making its 1.3 b population experience it.