For Illusions one has to pay the heavy price, especially when it comes to interstate relations
By Roman Gazenko
Without exaggeration, a tectonic shift is taking place in the relations between Russia and Pakistan in recent days. It is certain that this is the result of a deep mutual awareness of the mistakes and getting rid of the fatal illusions of the past. Since the formation of Pakistan in the process of decolonization of British India, Soviet-Pakistani relations have been extremely tense.
Newly formed Pakistan turned out to be the focal point of the global confrontation between the superpowers. The Soviet Union straightforwardly and, as it is now obvious, extremely thoughtlessly wasted its political, economic and military resources in full-throated support of India. In this solitaire, Pakistan found itself in the orbit of the strategic interests of the United States and Great Britain and joined the CENTO and SEATO blocs created at the initiative of the United States and Great Britain.
A serious crisis in relations between the USSR and Pakistan, fraught with open military conflict, arose on May 1, 1960. On that day, an American U-2 reconnaissance aircraft was shot down over Soviet territory. An American spy launched from Pakistani soil, and then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev erupted in threats to launch a missile strike on Pakistan. But when it turned out that the United States had not bothered to coordinate this action with the Pakistani leadership, common sense prevailed over emotions.
Otherwise, it would have created a risk of the involvement of the Soviet Union in the most devastating regional conflict with the prospect of its expansion to a global scale. At the same time, the United States, which were creating a casus belli by uncontrollably using Pakistani territory for aerial reconnaissance of Soviet strategic objects, would themselves have remained on the sidelines. This precedent provides keys to understanding the nature of the relations in the USSR-Pakistan-USA triangle, where the latter tried to prevent Pakistan from acquiring the status of a genuine independent entity in every possible way.
In contrast to the “North American partner,” the Soviet Union welcomed the course taken in the mid-1970s to making Pakistani foreign policy sovereign, in particular, the withdrawal from the pro-American SEATO bloc. The military coup in 1977, which returned Pakistan to the mainstream of the American strategy, once again exacerbated Soviet-Pakistani relations. Was it in the interests of our two countries? The question is rhetorical. I will express a paradoxical and extremely unpopular opinion in my homeland. Soviet policy during these years also turned out to be an instrument of remote manipulation from the outside.
The anti-state forces in the USSR created the most powerful levers of pro-Western influence. This applied to all key areas – social, military-political, economic and ideological. The subversive activities of a number of key persons in Soviet politics, primarily the heads of the security agencies – KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov and Defense Minister Dmitry Ustinov, under far-fetched pretexts and based on falsified information, plunged the USSR into the suicidal Afghan war. The entry of Soviet Union into Afghanistan, provoked by the West and supported by their own national traitors, became one of the final episodes of the USSR collapse. At the same time, Pakistan was assigned the role of an “active observer” in this special operation.
In 1979-1989, Pakistan played a crucial role in supporting the Afghan mujahideen movement, who fought against the government of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan and the Soviet troops who came to its aid. It was during this period that Pakistan turned into an open enemy of the USSR. And again – a rhetorical question: did Pakistan played the game as a sovereign country in the Afghan military-political hub? It was the CIA, under the al-Qaeda brand, that in 1988 created an organization to fight the USSR in Afghanistan. But a decade later, when al-Qaeda became a symbol of international terrorism, the shadow of international condemnation fell on Islamabad, despite the fact that numerous members of this organization, wanted in Pakistan for political killings and reprisals on religious grounds, took refuge from justice in the camps of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.
It is gratifying that the new era has caused a reassessment of foreign policy priorities in Moscow and Islamabad. The strongest geostrategic marker of a radical change in the relations between Moscow and Islamabad is Russia’s positive position on Pakistan’s entry into the group of nuclear suppliers. This is not only a tribute to the world’s only Islamic state that was able to create its own nuclear weapons. First, this is the recognition of the vital historical necessity of this step, as well as the revision of Moscow’s former unilateral preferences in the problem of the Pakistani-Indian confrontation.
Obviously, Russia realized that the process of accelerated development of its own nuclear program by Pakistan was caused by India’s intervention in 1971 in the civil war in East Pakistan, which contributed to the territorial division of the country. Russia’s support for Pakistan’s admission to the group of nuclear suppliers thus means that Moscow begins to take into account the national interests of Pakistan and its existential threats, as well as the deterrent and initially non-aggressive nature of its nuclear program.
The presence of common problems in the region, primarily terrorist threats, facilitates further rapprochement between the two states. After the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the transit of power carried out by the Taliban movement, all states in the region are extremely interested in strengthening Afghan statehood. In this aspect, Pakistan’s role as a key factor in ensuring stability and security in South Asia is growing significantly. And Russia is demonstrating a clear awareness of this fact.
After the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014, Russia lifted the embargo on the sale of military weapons to Pakistan. Despite the persistent opposition from India, in 2016 Russian and Pakistani military personnel conducted the first joint exercises in Pakistan under the symbolic name “Friendship”. In the same year, a trilateral summit on Afghanistan was held, in which, along with Russia and China, Pakistan became a full participant. Sino-Russian relations are a significant factor in the rapprochement between Moscow and Islamabad. In late Soviet times, both China and Pakistan were strategic opponents of India and the Soviet Union. Now the situation has changed dramatically. China, as the main economic and political rival of the United States, has become an important partner for Russia. And, like Russia, China cannot but be nervous about Delhi’s foreign policy drift towards the United States and Great Britain.
Pakistan authorities unequivocally concerned about United States` strong support for India. The United States has curtailed military aid to Pakistan, establishing further cooperation with India. Islamabad is concerned about the possible deterioration of Pakistani positions in South Asia, primarily on the Kashmir issue. At the same time, the United States is increasing political pressure on Pakistan, accusing it of cooperation with terrorist organizations – those that it itself created and financed. Now that the genie is out of the bottle, the United States continues to accuse anyone but itself of terrorism.
Against this background, the regular participation of the Pakistani armed forces units in the joint anti-terrorist exercises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems significant. The SCO “Peace Mission 2021” exercises held in September 2021 aimed at enhancing the coherence of anti-terrorist operations management bodies, sharing experience in countering terrorism, and mastering basic tactical techniques.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, these tasks were being completed taking into account the difficult military-political situation in Central Asia, primarily the unstable situation in Afghanistan. On October 9, the Russian-Pakistani exercises “Friendship-2021”, which have become regular, ended in Southern Russia. The main task of the maneuvers was to improve mutual interaction during operations in order to neutralize militants in the city. For this purpose, assault engineering units and Special Forces were used. The doctrine was anti-terrorist in nature.
The servicemen of the two states practiced various methods of countering illegal armed groups. Special focus was directed to the development of combat skills in urban conditions and the use of a “consolidated assault company” during the liberation of residential settlements and objects captured by terrorists. An important feature of these exercises is the use of the latest Russian weapons by the Pakistani military during joint operations.
However, the strategy of rapprochement between the two countries is not limited to military cooperation. Russia’s economic interests dictate the need to expand the eastern vector of cooperation, especially in the context of friendship with China and the anti-Russian sanctions of Western countries. Following this logic, Russia supports the idea of creating a China-Pakistan economic corridor within the framework of China’s Belt and Road Strategy. Russia also signed a $ 2 billion deal with Pakistan to build a North-South pipeline linking Karachi and Lahore. The partners followed up with a number of other deals in the energy sector.
Tectonic shifts in geopolitics are increasingly shaping the Russia-China-Pakistan strategic triangle as a natural response to the emerging American-Indian alliance. However, the pragmatics of any macro-political undertakings rests on the issue of geo-security and presupposes the recognition of past mistakes and getting rid of illusions. Any way one can say confidently the growing role of Islamabad as a geostrategic entity and a reliable partner of Moscow and Beijing. The age of realism has been emerging.
Roman Gazenko, Russian Political Expert (opinion is that of the Author).
(Editor’s Note: The decision to take part in Afghanistan was Pakistan’s own. CIA entered the game after two years. Anyhow, it is good that both the countries have realized the importance of each other and decide to work together for the betterment/peace of the region and the world.)