Trump Unveils “Warsaw Plan”

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By General Mirza Aslam Beg

Former COAS, Pakistan Army

President Trump is building-up
his strategic naval forces, in the Gulf Region, NOT to fight the ‘naval
superiority battle’ of the deep seas, but to apply “Shock and Awe” therapy on
the Iranians, suffering from decades of “Monetary Terrorism” and “Social
Engineering” – an act of war, imposed over several decades. He thinks it is the
opportune time for Israel to strike to achieve the objectives of the “Warsaw
Plan,” February 2019.

The plan envisages Israel ‘to
take-on Iran’ supported by US and the coalition members. US will not get
directly involved in this war. They consider Iran politically and economically
weakened for Israel, to bring about Regime Change in Iran. It appears that,
both USA and Israel have learnt no lessons from their contemporary wars in the
region, such as: First. In 1980 US induced Iraq to invade Iran, to Crush the
Revolution and bring about Regime Change. The day after, General Zia called an
emergent meeting of the cabinet to discuss the impending situation. As CGS, I
represented GHQ. All the participants were of the opinion that Iran will be
defeated in a matter of weeks. I intervened:

 “The war is not going to end in a matter of
days or weeks, rather it would be a long protracted war, lasting over several
years, with Iran emerging as the victor, and the revolution would consolidate.
The famous Chinese saying will prove right: “Never take-on the revolutionaries
unless you have an ideology stronger than theirs.” And there is no ideology stronger than the ideology of Islam.
Historically, the Iranians have always stood united against foreign aggression.
No doubt Raza Shah’s armed forces are in disarray and are locked-up in their
barracks, but they will rise, as one, to defend the country, supported by the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards, who would consolidate the Revolution.”

 “The Iraqi armed forces, no doubt, have a
modern military machine, but their higher military leadership, lacks the
professional ability of the German General Staff, to launch the breakthrough
battle, followed by blitzkrieg operations deep into the enemy territory. The
boggy areas in the South and the mountainous region in the north would restrict
deep maneuvers. Thus there would be no major gains or losses and a slow
slogging series of battles causing heavy casualties. Ultimately the Iranians
would emerge victorious. I therefore submit that, we formulate our policy also
for the options, i.e., a long war, with Iran emerging as the victor.”

I was proved right. After eight
years of brutal war, the Iranian forces crossed the Shat-al-Arab and
concentrated at Faw, to capture Basra. Saddam attacked with chemical weapons,
supplied by the civilized world, causing heavy casualties. Iran had no defense
against chemical weapons and opted for cease fire. Situation now is very
similar, but militarily Iran is ten times stronger than in 1980.

Second. In 2006, an Iranian
military delegation called on me. There was threat of war by Israel. I advised
them that “they could counter Israel by firing free flight missiles and
rockets, to degrade their “Iron-Dome, air defense system.” In the meantime,
Reuter’s journalists also called and asked me about my discussion with the
Iranians. I told them, “If Israel attacked, Iran would reply with missiles and
rockets to engage targets deep into Israel.”

Instead of Iran, Israel selected
Hezbollah as the weaker enemy. Hezbollah countered by firing free flight
rockets in large numbers, a threat which the American Iron Dome could not
effectively counter. The Israeli government panicked and decided to use the
Army, to destroy Hezbollah missile firing sites, but failed, because man to
man, they were no match to Hezbollah fighters. The situation on ground today
appears most unfavourable for Israel. If Israel decides to engage Iran, the
estimated number of over 200,000 missiles and free flight rockets, would be
raining over Israel from three directions 
Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

That would degrade the Iron-Dome
Air Defense System of Israel, within days. Only recently Hamas fired over 400
rockets over Israel and the Israeli air defense system could intercept only 60%
of those. This factor would form the ‘critical mass’ for decision between the
two “opposing will”.

Third. In 2001, when Pakistan
joined US war against Afghanistan, I warned General Musharraf:

 “You have taken the decision and therefore
there is no point in justifying it now. The critical issue is, of joining the
war, having no moral or ethical ground. The Afghans have never done any harm to
us, nor do we have a defence pact with America to join them. However, we now
have to carefully proceed ahead, so that the red line is not crossed to harm
our national interests.”

“In a matter of weeks, the
invading forces will occupy Afghanistan and Taliban will fall back to the
line  Jalalabad  Kandahar, from where they had started in
1996, and would link-up with their support base in Pakistan. Ultimately they
will regroup, forming an alliance with the old Mujahideen and supported by the
young jehadis from Pakistan and other countries, would build-up a formidable
resistance movement against the occupation forces. As the resistance would
develop, the conflict zone would expand to our border region, reversing the war
on Pakistan. This would be a difficult period for Pakistan, facing a two-front
war. No doubt the America and their allies will take full control of
Afghanistan in a matter of weeks but ultimately Taliban would emerge
victorious. America and the allies would be the loosers.”

Having lost a trillion dollar and
lives of over 2400 soldiers in Afghanistan, America and the allies seem to have
missed “the logic of conflict,” which derives strength from the Ideology of the
Iranian Revolution and the ideology of the Afghan Jihad. Both meet at one
point  Oneness of Allah, guiding the
destiny of nations. America, the sole super power of the world, thus is
beseeching Taliban for cease fire, for an honorable exit. Sure, Israel is
listening and watching.

Iran will not target any of the
US forces in the region, so as not to invite a Pearl Harbor, although the
enemies of Iran are trying to get USA drawn into the conflict. Four oil
tankers, heading for US ports have been “carefully damaged” near the UAE
Coast-line, some 140xKM distance from the Gulf. The Houties from Yemen have
carried out done attacks to damage the two pumping stations supplying oil to
Saudi towns.

The ruse may work but Iran will
‘take Israel hostage’ with missiles raining from three directions – Iran,
Hezbollah and Hamas. No doubt, Israel can engage targets deep inside Iran using
the American F-35 – the Air superiority weapon, yet the Iranians are also
capable of giving a big surprise to the Israelis, threatening its very
existence.

If war breaks-out, it would be
characterized by massive use of missiles, rockets, drones and suicide bombers,
as the deciding factoss. It would be in the interest of Israel; therefore, not
to go “the Trump way” but follow the two nation theory to establish lasting
peace in the region.

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