By Gen Mirza Aslam Beg
This plan should have come some eight years earlier in 2012, when they realized having lost the war and sent Mr. Richard Armitage to Pakistan as head of the Committee of the Senate on Afghanistan, to explore the possibility of dialogue with the Taliban. He met me and we were able to convince the Taliban to designate the members of their delegation for the talks but Mr. Armitage was restrained by Pentagon from proceeding any further. However, it’s not too late now to initiate Trump’s Plan.
The main element of the plan is withdrawal of the US led forces from Afghanistan in eighteen months time, in return to security guarantees by the Taliban and return of 5000 Taliban prisoners, held by Afghan government. On the face of it there are negative as well as positive trends in the plan that would determine the peace parameters. On balance, it is the positiveness of the plan that may prevail over the negative trends. Let us examine:
Negativeness
The Exit Plan has come as a rude shock to the Indians. Therefore in collaboration with NDS, RAW, they may carry-out terror attacks in Pakistan and the neighboring countries, blaming Taliban. India considers the plan a betrayal and big victory for ISI, and a big relief to Pakistan on the Western Front.
Internal factions, such as Ashraf Ghani, the war-lords and splinter groups will oppose the formation of a Taliban government. Their effort would be to fail the intra-Afghan dialogue as a way forward to decide Afghanistan future, through an inclusive process. If the intra-afghan dialogue succeeds, that would be the first major step to provide a firm-base for the future Afghan government.
USA itself would resist the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The words “USA does not recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” has appeared umpteen times in the peace accord document. No US government official signed the peace accord so that a U-Turn may be possible, later-on.
On purpose, an eighteen months delay has been imposed for the departure of all US and allied troops. A sizeable number of troops would, thus be retained for ulterior motives. Due to this reason Iran has rejected the plan and for the same reason Turkey has warned Russia to leave Syria.
The countries that opposed the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in 1989-90 after the Soviet withdrawal are also opposed to it now, because a Jehadi Afghanistan, a Revolutionary Iran and an Islamic Pakistan, together would form the Strategic Pivot providing Strategic Depth of security to the entire Muslim World.
Positiveness
The positive trends are stronger and most likely to prevail over the negativeness.
The Americans are tired of this war and ashamed of the shameful defeat at the hands of Taliban. They want a “peaceful exit with honour, before it becomes a dishonorable surrender. In Afghanistan, America is in danger of repeating Vietnam mistake.” They want to leave, but after creating face-saving devices for which they have sought eighteen months time.
There are too many guarantees being sought from Taliban who are dispersed and are not formed into an organized system of governance, to deliver. They need time that could give them the much needed stability. The time lag is the real ‘danger period’ the negative forces could exploit to defeat the cause of peace.
Time and space, the two important factors of war have been used with great advantage by Taliban, whereas, Americans control the air-space, which has not helped them win the war. Taliban are not tired of the war, after forty years of the brutal conflict. In their recent surge against Ashraf Ghani army they launched attacks in thirteen provinces, hitting thirty-three targets. In retaliation, Americans carried out air strikes restraining the Taliban.
In 1989-90, the Mujahideen had seven field commanders and two Masters ISI and CIA. Now they have only one commander who is also their leader and guide. Their command structure is firmly established with Mullah Umar’s sons in command of the Northern region, from Mazar-e-Sharif to Badakhshan and Sarajuddin Haqqani in command of the Southern region from Herat to Nuristan. Taliban command Headquarters is located in Kunduz province. Almost 80% of Afghan territory is under their control, where Shariah Law is in practice. The necessary infrastructure already exist for a state to develop.
The hard core of the Taliban now consists of the Afghan youth, born during the last four decades and grown under the shadows of war, are diehard fighters dedicated to their leader Mullah Umar and his vision. In 2003, Mullah Umar gave his vision in reply to my question:
“We have decided to fight to the end to win our freedom. For us to follow the agenda of the occupation forces is not compatible with our traditions, our national ethos and purpose. We will fight and win our freedom, Insha Allah, to establish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, friendly to all neighbors and countries beyond. “Pakistan does not stand by us at the moment, yet we stand by Pakistan, to safeguard our interests at all times.”
Mullah Umar’s vision is also reflected in the Policy Guide-lines recently given-out by Sarajuddin Haqqani in his write-up, having a clear political vision, which guarantees a resilient government in Afghanistan governed by rule of law and fortified by the honor-code of a people who have defeated the mightiest of the mighty in a short period of four decades a feat un-paralleled in the history of mankind.
Trump’s exit plan is fairly complicated and deceitful, attempting to retain enough power, to stem the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, as well as achieve a peaceful exit. The two objectives are contradictory and would fail to give the advantage of an honorable exit, which Soviets could achieve in 1989 and earned the respect and good-will of Afghans.
General Mirza Aslam Beg, Former Chief of Army Staff. E-mail: friendscolumn@hotmail.com.