Conflict dynamics of Kashmir and Palestine issues

By General Mirza Aslam Beg

Violating the seven decades old UN Resolutions, the Strategic Defense Partners of United States have unitarily imposed Peace Plans on Kashmir and Palestine, establishing dangerous precedence for the Muslim World. In fact, two different conflict zones now have been established with different logic of conflict emerging that would determine the future course of events in the region.

The internal dynamics of the Kashmir freedom movement are strong, now taking it to a boiling point, which cannot be suppressed by force. So far it is peaceful, but will soon turn violent, as brutalities continue unabated. Jehadi groups from within would emerge, joined by the jehadis of the world similar to what happened in Afghanistan during the wars against Soviet and American occupation.

Whereas the steps Modi has taken to assimilate occupied Kashmir, cannot be reversed either, thus the conflict would drag-on with more death and destruction taking place. Khalistan Movement would become alive, causing lot of pain to the soft under-belly of over 800,000 Indian troops deployed in IOK. Pakistan’s’ policy of “Not joining others wars” will also be put to test. The Palestinian Movement’s internal dynamics are weak. Their leadership is divided. The Palestinians appear reconciled with their fate, and would prefer that:

“Merely staying on the land, with steadfastness would be an act of resistance and a long-term challenge to Israel. “What do I need a state for, if it does not give me more than I already have.”

Thus a weak and divided Palestinian leadership and half the Arab World supporting Trumps Peace Plan, has emboldened Mr. Trump to impose a solution, “as if the Palestinians have no voice, no rights, trapped in a detention camp. The world does not hear their narrative, nor see their realities.” Trumps “Vision for Peace” permanently deprives the Palestinians of their participation in the negotiations and deprives them of their land, liberty and dignity. The deal also approves Israel’s existing annexation of East Jerusalem. All terms and conditions are to be accepted within four years otherwise Israel would plunder more territory.

It is the plan worked-out in Israel by Trumps son-in-law and the US Ambassador David Friedman. Everything about the plan is farcical “glubbly accepted by the American President, so quickly for so littles.” Palestinians are torn over whom to protest against: “Do we overcome our internal problems with Abbas first or with Israel.”

The serious ramification of the Peace plan is its “connect with Iran”, after assassination of General Qasim Solemani, Al-Quds commander, adding a new dimension to Palestinian logic of conflict. Americans never believed Iran could retaliate so boldly, in Iraq against American military bases and could shoot down the American high-tech reconnaissance plane in Afghanistan. Under shock, Israel pleaded with American not to escalate the situation for fear of a war which could cause existential damage to Israel.

The Muslim World is divided. Even the OIC is not prepared to allow Iran to attend the conference, because it does not suit the Saudi masters who also dissuaded Prime Minister Imran Khan, not to attend the Kuala Lumpur conference which could create a vibrant and effective platform attending to the problems of the Muslim World in a more effective manner.

Yet it is a matter of pride that Iran, which has been demonized and brutalized for the last four decades, has been able to maintain its dignity, pride and a powerful fighting spirit to challenge the super-power of the world. With the first “punishing blow” of only 22 missiles, against American bases in Iraq caused brain concussion damage to American soldiers hiding deep into concrete bunkers, came as a rude shock to the Americans.

In this context imagine the impact of thousands of rockets and missiles raining over Israel. Let’s examine the likely scenario. A new kind of asymmetric war is lurking over Israel, against which the Israeli army has no defense. It is a threat which combines the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war technique which Israel lost, with 2015 Taliban battle for Kunduz in Afghanistan. Simply stated:

This asymmetric war against Israel, in the first phase, would begin with massive use of free flight rockets, missiles and drones from several directions to degrade the iron-dome air defense system and the public morale, followed by explosive loaded vehicles to breach the barrier at multiple places and the suicide bombers in thousands rushing forward through the breach to cause fear and panic and rout to the enemy.

Israel was warned well in time about the threat from Hezbollah, but they did not care and suffered a shameful defeat in 2006. They are being warned now about the threat from Iran, and they better care. Therefore, for America and their proxies Israel and India, the choice is very clear, either to pursue the Modi and Trump peace deals or engage with the Kashmiris and Palestinians to evolve honorable solution, acceptable to all concerned.

General Mirza Aslam Beg is a Former Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan. E-mail: friendscolumn@hotmail.com.

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