The changing dynamics of Iran-Israel conflict

The changing dynamics 1

By General Mirza Aslam Beg

General Qasim Solemani of Iran was assassinated, blaming him and Iran for the death of many American soldiers. Soon after, American and Israeli forces deployed to punish Iran. Instead of direct confrontation, Iran preferred a ‘strategy of deterrence”:

“If Iran was attacked, the response would begin with massive use of free flight rockets, missiles and drones from several directions to degrade the iron-dome air defense system of Israel as well as the public morale, followed by explosive loaded vehicles to breach the barrier at multiple places and the suicide bombers rushing forward through the breaches, to cause fear, panic and rout to the enemy.”

The deterrence forecast existential threat to Israel, forcing retreat, including the fleet blocking the Persian Gulf. A ‘Stealth Strategy’ was therefore developed to harm Iran through punishing strikes at several targets. Reportedly the 5th generation F-35 air superiority stealth fighter aircraft was used against which Iran has no defense:

“Israel has apparently been conducting what amounts to a slow motion, semi-covert military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, and perhaps other industrial and infrastructure targets as well. Mysterious explosions and fires have struck a key centrifuge production facility; a military base where missiles are produced, as well as power plants, aluminum and chemical factories. A fire erupted at the port of Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, destroying seven ships.”

Similarly, Hizbollah was targeted with a huge blast in Lebanon, as punishment for causing defeat to Israel in 2006 war. The tri-lateral US-Israel-Arab Strategic Alliance, called Abraham Accord, is exploiting the Shia-Sunni divide, to isolate Iran. Ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, USA has demonized Iran as a threat to the Sunni Arab countries, who have been buying weapons and military hard-ware from USA, worth billions of dollars. Now as, the threat becomes focused, there would be a spree of defense purchases from Israel, in particular.

The diplomatic offensive of Israel-UAE Agreement – Abraham Accord has ruptured decades of Arab unity. The deal also reverses the order of diplomatic offensive by the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.” Under this treaty Egypt and Jordon recognized Israel but they stand cheated, now.

As a matter of fact a creeping annexation is already underway, that would dash all hopes for the two nations’ strategy. Oman, Bahrain and Sudan appear more interested in establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. As a matter of fact “a tri-lateral US-Israel-Arab strategic alliance is shaping up against Iran, seeking a cynical alliance and not benevolent peace.”

Iranian Response

In response, Iran lost no time forging the Strategic Defense Partnership with China. This Partnership has kicked-up a geo-political storm, defining the contours of the New World Order. China has succeeded building a financial system that bypasses the US and its “maximum pressure” policy. It is for the first time that the Chinese “Economic Order” has created the Economic Deterrence which provides security to Iran, and to all those who come under the security umbrella of this order.

The Chinese “economic order”, has created a meaningful “Economic Deterrence” against the forces of aggression. It provides security to Iran, against the US-Israeli stealth strategy. The United States displayed the strategy of “Shock and Awe” and “Extreme Pressure” over the last four decades, decimitating several Muslim countries, killing over eight million Muslims, now is engaged with Israel, against Iran, putting the entire Middle East in a state of turmoil.

Indeed a dangerous juxtaposition of events has emerged, creating a complex situation. Thus “the political and strategic blue-print which is being drawn in the Middle East, is pushing Arabs into an undiminished mutual enmity and an internecine war that would benefit Israel.”

At present Iran is vulnerable to Israeli attacks by its air superiority aircrafts F-35 fighters and accurate intelligence. It is a matter of time that China develops the capability to counter this threat, which is so critical for Iran. The Chinese J-20 also is a 5th generation stealth jet fighter. It may or may not be able to challenge the American F-35, but knowing that the China can shoot-down a satellite in the outer-space, it should not be difficult for them to develop the capability to shoot-down the F-35. When that happens, Israeli “Stealth Strategy” will fade away, which rests at the cutting edge of technology, as of now.

Options for Pakistan

The American and Saudi factor would be compelling for Pakistan to take a neutral stance, not-withstanding Chinese open-hearted support both to Pakistan and Iran. However, now we must start thinking about our “deterrent capability” other than the nuclear. The cost of a conventional deterrence is the actual difference between the cost of a free-flight rocket and a patriot missile. Our best wishes are for the Arabs, seeking peace with Israel but not at the cost of Palestinians blood. The movement of truth will soon arrive, when the Israeli Prime Minister visits UAE, and their national anthem is played, relaying the message from Tel Aviv:

“Let those who are our enemy shudder, Let all the inhabitants of Egypt and Canaan tremble, Let the inhabitants of Babylon shudder, To loom over their skies, panic and terror from us, When we plant our spears in their chests, And we see their blood being shed, And their heads cut off.”

جو چپ رہے کی زبان خنجر لہو پکارے گا آستیں کا

(Jo chup rahy gi zuban-e-khanjar, Lahoo pukarey ga aasteen ka)

The stains of blood on the mortal hands, convey “the divine verdict” (Quran, Surah Al-Haj (22) verse 40), that the Nazi’s could not liquidate the Jews, the Jews cannot curb Palestinians resolve for freedom and the Indians cannot crush the Kashmiris struggle for right of self-determination.

General Mirza Aslam Beg, Former Chief of Army Staff E-mail: friendscolumn@hotmail.com

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