BLEND OF CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES WITH COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL SECURITY
Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan, Air Marshal Ashfaque Arain, distinguished speakers of the Seminar, ladies and gentlemen. It is a matter of great honour for me to have been asked to deliver a keynote address at today’s Seminar at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS). I have been following quite closely the high quality academic and intellectual work which has been undertaken at the CASS ever since its inception a few years ago. I am really happy to say that the research work, publications and outreach undertaken at CASS is way up amongst the best in Pakistan; and that too in a very short time.
Frankly I am not surprised given that top quality professionals like Air Marshal Farhat, Air Marshal Ashfaque and their team members have been entrusted by the Pakistan Air Force with this intellectual responsibility. I have had the privilege of working closely with both the senior officers during our respective times at the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and the Air Force Strategic Command (AFSC). You can’t find more dedicated and intellectually gifted professionals than the two Air Officers. They made huge contributions during their tenures at the AFSC, and I think they make a great team here at the CASS.
The topic for today’s Seminar has been well chosen. The Role of New and Emerging Technologies in Comprehensive National Security is a subject that is important, but is also at the same time both current and futuristic, as in not too distant a future. These have been around for quite some time now, and is relevant and vital particularly to the security environments of countries like Pakistan which are located in international crush zones and have to bear the brunt of the cross currents of international geo-political power play as these play out in our region even as I speak.
In addition to the interplay of the cross currents of international geo-political power play, Pakistan continues to additionally bear the consequences of the unfinished agenda of the partition of India with a raging unresolved conflict over Kashmir with its eastern neighbour.
Therefore for Pakistan its national security dynamics, or comprehensive national security dynamics, translate into a variety of threat scenarios, ranging from good old fashioned contact warfare to non-contact warfare, and the evolving notions of national security ranging from the traditional to the non-traditional, all of which must be taken into account by Pakistan’s national and strategic planners. In this complex mix, we can now add the emergence of exotic and new technologies, as these evolve and unfold year after year not only globally, but more importantly from Pakistan’s perspective in the region of South Asia.
Some of you would recall that CASS had organized a Seminar last year in October on “Militarization of Emerging Technologies: Implications on Strategic Stability in South Asia”, and had given me the honour to deliver a keynote then too. That Seminar and today’s Seminar have one thing in common, that is, the study of the effects that are being generated by the New and Emerging Technologies in different domains and from different perspectives.
The difference to my mind is the focus or the prism through which two different aspects of these emerging technologies are being looked at. In October last year it was the effects or implications of emerging technologies on Strategic Stability in South Asia, and today, it is the role or blend of emerging technologies with comprehensive national security. Therefore, as a recap before proceeding further, I would like to quote briefly from my October keynote in order to illustrate a certain connectivity between the prisms of the two Seminars.
I had said then and I quote, “I would like to start by taking a somewhat philosophical and historical view of the term Emerging Technologies. The term Emerging Technologies in recent years has managed to catch the imagination and attention of today’s military professionals as something of a new and exotic term of our times.
Perhaps because exotic technologies like robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), directed energy weapons, hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare, space capabilities, drones, etcetera, conjure a vision of a star wars like inter-galactic warfare from faraway distances, wherein a faceless adversary can neither be seen nor pin pointed for possible retribution and retaliation.
A video-game like environment where an anonymous individual sitting in Florida playing on his video-screen can blow up with mind boggling precision Ayman Al Zwahiri in the balcony of a Kabul apartment. Or a faceless cyber space hacking operation which can switch off the electricity grid of a mega city plunging life into chaos and inflicting massive financial losses. The effects generated through some of these technologies include shock and awe, surprise and destruction far in excess of conventional technologies as we know them – force multipliers in many ways; warfare without a nametag.
We seem to have latched on to this coinage of emerging technologies with much enthusiasm, awe and novelty as if the development and emergence of technologies before our current era had come to a stop and that it is only of late that technologies have made a breakthrough and started to emerge or re-emerge from hibernation.
Philosophically speaking, if we look at technologies in a historical perspective, I would like to submit that for ages past, and for that matter for centuries past, technologies and technological developments in any given era, were always dynamic, progressive and generated profound strategic effects on the strategic stability-instability paradigm in that particular era, time, place and region.
Of course with each passing decade, or a couple of decades, or a century, the complexity and lethality of technologies certainly became more and more challenging in each era than in the eras past but because science and technology are by their very nature progressive, innovative and a marvel, new technologies did not really stop emerging – ever. Technologies remain in an unstoppable race to ever expanding frontiers of excellence, innovation, capabilities and mysteries. It is impossible to tell where and when these would stop, if ever,” unquote.
That was in the context of militarization of emerging technologies and their implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia. Today in this Seminar that canvass has been greatly broadened by the sponsors, and rightly so, to discuss and debate the role of New and Emerging Technologies at the level of what is being referred to as comprehensive national security. It is important not only to debate and be clear as to what we think comprehensive national security is, or ought to be in the security environments of today and tomorrow but also the role that emerging technologies are likely to play in this wider notion of comprehensive national security.
Also, it is not possible to project as to what might be the futuristic reliability and the shelf life of the invention of a particular new technology or innovation as we know these today. How long will the strategic effects of a certain technology prevail or last as a dominant marvel of science and engineering, creating tactical and strategic imbalances in the process, before an antidote in due course of time is discovered or invented and the effects either neutralized or an effective strategic balance of sorts restored? It may not be a bad guess to predict that the timeframe will probably be measured in terms of a couple of decades for a technology to mature, be absorbed by the users in a meaningful way, and become familiarized to play a variety of roles in comprehensive national security of a nation.
In the concept note of today’s Seminar, CASS has defined comprehensive national security quite accurately as a state of preparedness for the threats and risks to vital functions of society. It recognises the inherent connectivity between traditional and non-traditional elements of national security and proposes a whole-of-nation approach towards charting a cohesive, unified, and responsive security policy for the future.
In addition to generally agreeing with the definition by CASS, I would like to add or at least make it clear what ought to be obvious that while defining the notion of comprehensive national security of a nation, the fundamental and basic values of three factors, political stability with peace within and peace without, a sound and robust economy, and social cohesion between various segments and communities within a society, will just have to be considered sine qua non, or indispensable pre-requisites for a nation to feel comprehensively secure.
Without ensuring that these three pre-requisites, which I’ll repeat for emphasis, political stability with peace within and peace without, sound and robust economy, and social cohesion, are deeply embedded in the life of a nation, the mere possession of some of the fancy state of the art emerging technologies are not likely to go very far in playing a worthwhile role in the provision of comprehensive national security. If this be true, we may like to make an objective internal assessment of the situation around us so as to gauge what might be amiss in our comprehensive national security environments.
Here I would like to say a few words about the changing dynamics of traditional and non-traditional security. We in the military are largely trained to think and make our threat assessments and response options in a bit of a strait jacket; from the early days in our respective training academies to the higher courses at staff and war colleges. In each service, there is a straight forward template of military methodology at each incremental level which trains our minds to arrive logically at feasible military response options to various threat scenarios, the probability and likelihood of some of those scenarios unfolding in a certain order of priority whether on land, air or at sea, with jointness built into plans at a higher level. By and large, following the military methodology template invariably leads one to workable response options and plans which can then be executed as per the unfolding of a particular operational environment or a hypothesis, including variants of all shades.
Now all this is very fine as long as the threat is in the domain of brute force of conventional forces of the adversary being physically pitched against the brute force of our own forces. This is warfare at its oldest and crudest threatening the security of nations in a very traditional form of unleashing violence in pursuit of national policies. From North America to Europe, from Asia to the Pacific, world armies know how to do it, world air forces know how to do it, and world navies know how to do it. As military professionals we are past masters at the job.
But consider now that the arrival of a variety of emerging technologies of our times that widen the canvass of non-traditional response options, or even non-traditional options for initiating operations in a non-traditional manner. Such capabilities will now have to be incorporated and integrated into national security plans in a manner that might be novel and innovative, not necessarily relying on violence as the preferred option, and allowing considerable flexibility of deniability.
Such possibilities are today being enabled by various forms of Artificial Intelligence, cyber warfare, robotics, information wars, and what have you. In the current war in Ukraine, for example, one can find a subtle combination of traditional and non-traditional means at play. Some time back, in the war in Azerbaijan, one learnt about the overwhelming role and employment of drones in quite a non-traditional manner.
As someone who learnt on job how to develop, operationalize and manage Pakistan’s substantial nuclear inventory to serve the purposes of national security, as a very basic example, what readily comes to my mind in the context of South Asia is the game changing role that the development and operational induction of nuclear weapons has played in South Asia.
Nuclear weapons, which even though continue to improve qualitatively all the time, are nevertheless based on a technology that emerged a long long time ago and perhaps strictly speaking may not find its place in the current definitions of the term emerging technology. Nevertheless, it is a technology of its time and the mere possession of a triad of operationalized nuclear weapons by both Pakistan and India has seemingly outlawed major wars in South Asia, strategic deterrence is in place and it apparently works; it has controlled a rush of blood on both sides in a number of otherwise haywire situations.
Having said that however, what the deterrence effects of nuclear technology have been able to achieve in South Asia is that having helped in outlawing major wars, these have nevertheless created, what I might call, a strategic deflection effect towards the strategies of lesser wars by other means; meaning other than the means of regulation conventional forces.
They have pushed war towards non-traditional, non-contact means defined by various shades of hybrid war including low intensity conflicts, opening of a variety of inner fronts, intense information war, perhaps water wars in the future, anonymous cyber-attacks on critical facilities, even aggressive diplomatic and economic policies in Pakistan’s traditional areas of influence, etcetera. Consequently, one might ask, what has been at the receiving end? The answer is Pakistan’s national security, comprehensive national security.
Sooner rather than later, some of the new and emerging technologies mentioned earlier which are currently going around in the world are bound to find their way, in one shape or another, in the inventories of South Asia too. These will invariably have dual use, or perhaps more accurately, quadruple use; civil, military, positive and negative. As such one should expect that these technologies will have a positive role to play in providing and reinforcing comprehensive national security in non-traditional areas of nation building, in boosting economic growth through a vast variety of civil applications in a large number of trade and economic sectors like finance and banking, stock markets, construction industry, in the energy sector, in the agricultural sector, in Information Technology, in improving and reforming the health and education sectors, in enhancing communications and providing super-fast transportation options for both cargo and human travel.
But then the emerging technologies will invariably also carry the potential to enhance military capabilities in the traditional conventional as well as non-conventional strategic forces. What will follow therefore will be the placement at the doorsteps of military and strategic decision makers more innovative and exotic means of pursuing and influencing outcomes in support of a nation’s foreign policy goals and objectives; and that too perhaps through an entirely non-violent and surreptitious means with plausible deniability as the benchmarks.
Following from the foregoing therefore, I would like here to inject a sense of urgency, a polite respectful word of caution, advice, early warning, call it what you will, to Pakistan’s decision makers in the civil public and private sectors, and in the military sector that this is the future. Emerging technologies are here, and here to stay, elsewhere in the advanced countries including China.
It is only a matter of time not too far away in the future, that these applications will surely be inducted in South Asia as well, in the civil public and private sectors for economic benefits, and in the relevant military sector in our neighbour’s conventional and strategic inventories. Therefore, the time for Pakistan to get its act together is now; first in enhancing our learning and understanding of these technologies at the technical level, applications level and at the operational level; and then moving rapidly in laying out comprehensive national plans for their induction and application in the relevant areas of our national life in both civil public and private sectors, and the military sector. That to my mind will perhaps be what the sponsors have called a whole-of-nation approach.
If Pakistan does not dive into this critical area without loss of time now, it will struggle in the future when it might belatedly discover the negative effects of time and technology lapses, and try and play catch up; it might be too late by then. The technology gap with the adversary might have widened beyond local repair. And mind you, for Pakistan with our rich and historic experiences of living with denials, sanctions and embargoes, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the doors and windows to these technologies will start to dry up with time. We in the armed forces and at the SPD are quite familiar with the consequences of such denials, sanctions and embargoes. Therefore, the time to act is now while the doors are still open.
Pakistan has the advantage of a proven and reliable strategic partnership going for it which has stood the test of times at all times in the past; it needs to be tapped urgently in the interest of enhancing and securing Pakistan’s comprehensive national security which must include the civil public and private sectors as well as the military sector. Failure to do so would be a dereliction of responsibility. The enormous loss would be of Pakistan in general with serious negative effects on comprehensive national security.
As of today, and for the foreseeable future, to the best of my knowledge, the development and induction of new and emerging technologies are not particularly governed by any specific international treaties or conventions. In fact, there appears to be considerable lack of clarity and confusion on trade, liability, and export control. History nevertheless indicates that at some point in time when a certain technology like, for example, nuclear and missile technology, chemical or biological technology, even some dreadful conventional weapons technology begins to cross certain thresholds of excessive proliferation, or ethical barriers, or some advanced countries consider locking in their technological advantages, countries do come together to negotiate and agree on certain minimum do’s and don’ts with much give and take and finally translate into treaties and conventions.
History also shows that such initiatives and negotiations can take a long time in terms of decades with diplomats and technocrats leveraging for advantage while working on texts. As of now, even though there is much chatter, I am not aware of any international or regional initiative in such a direction. Perhaps it will happen at some time in the future.
Therefore, once again as I end, I would emphasise on Pakistan’s national leadership to make the most of this diplomatic vacuum and focus our national technology plans on familiarization, development, induction and indigenization of emerging technologies in relevant areas of civil and military applications to serve the purposes of comprehensive national security. An appropriately focused national task force with clearly defined lead agency, mandate, objectives and reasonable resources at its disposal could be a good start point.
I take great pleasure in congratulating the visionary leadership at CASS for focusing national attention on this important subject with Seminars not once but twice within a few months. My hope will be that having taken the initiative and lead in this important direction CASS must continue to follow up and relentlessly pester Pakistan’s planners and informed scientific and strategic community till the penny drops, a momentum is built and the fruits of your efforts spread widely to benefit Pakistan.
I thank you.