By Dr. Moonis Ahmar
A decade after the launching of the Silk Road project which was renamed as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese President Xi Jinping arranged a BRI forum from October 17-18 which was attended by more than 130 countries, several international organizations along with 10,000 delegates. It was the third BRI forum and examined in detail how China can play a leadership role in promoting its global influence by focusing on investments, trade, aid, technology, and cultural diplomacy.
China, which was impoverished and an economically fragile country seven decades ago is now the world’s second-largest economy with a GDP of $ 18 trillion, foreign exchange reserves of $ 3.2 trillion, per capita income of $ 13,000, and an economic growth rate of 5%. Since the Cultural Revolution of 1966, China has pulled more than 500 million people from the poverty line and has a vibrant economy.
Sharing its economic success, particularly with the developing countries China initiated BRI, called as mother of all projects focusing on connectivity, infrastructure development, and modernization by investing several hundred billion dollars including in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project. Celebrating 10 years of BRI attended by more than 130 countries from all the continents of the world, the Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping urged upon the participants of the BRI forum to critically examine the performance of the initiative in providing a good quality of life to people particularly in the under-developed world.
As reported in a section of the press, “the ongoing 3rd Belt and Road Forum (BRF), inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, stands as one of the pivotal multilateral diplomatic affairs on China’s calendar for the year, drawing attention on the global stage. Under the banner of “High-quality Belt and Road Cooperation:
Together for Common Development and Prosperity,” the BRF has attracted delegates from over 130 nations and 30 international organizations. The forum was participated by three European leader’s viz. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
From the African region Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima, Kenyan President William Ruto, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso joined the celebration. Moreover, 13 leaders/heads of states including Pakistan, Chile, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam also joined the forum.
In the worsening situation posing numerous challenges to the fragile world order, BRI is termed as a positive initiative on the part of China to empower those countries with technology, and better infrastructure, trickling down to human development. Predictably, the United States and the West, including India and Japan view BRI as a project trying to deepen dependency and augment the debt trap among countries recipients of Chinese investments.
Examples of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Angola, and Kyrgyzstan are given where billions of dollars of Chinese investment tend to intensify the level of debt trap providing Beijing enormous clout over such countries and mitigating their sovereignty. The third BRI forum held from October 17-18 was meant to examine the challenges encompassing the initiative. That forum also witnessed the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders who along with their Chinese counterparts were engaged in strengthening connectivity from Latin America to Africa, and Europe to Asia.
In its essence, “Over the past decade, China has embarked on an audacious quest, joining hands with more than 150 nations and 30 international organizations in a grand partnership to co-create the BRI. This monumental endeavor has manifested in the realization of over 3,000 collaborative projects under the BRI umbrella, representing a substantial investment of nearly $1 trillion”.
If the BRI forum witnessed an impressive gathering of countries directly and indirectly involved in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, it also reflected the presence of an official delegation of the Taliban government which signified the formal inclusion of Afghanistan in BRI.
Earlier, the Chinese government while disregarding the non-recognition of the Taliban regime by the UN appointed its ambassador to Kabul. According to Reuters news agency dated October 19, 2023, “The Taliban administration wants to formally join Chinese President Xi Jinping’s huge ‘Belt and Road’ infrastructure initiative and will send a technical team to China for talks, Afghanistan’s acting commerce minister said in a statement.”
Acting Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters in an interview a day after the Belt and Road Forum ended in Beijing that “We requested China to allow us to be a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Belt and Road Initiative… (and) are discussing technical issues today.” The Acting Afghan Commerce Minister further said, “The administration would also send a technical team to China to enable it to “better understand” the issues standing in the way of it joining the initiative, but did not elaborate on what was holding Afghanistan back. Afghanistan could offer China a wealth of coveted mineral resources.
Several Chinese companies already operate there, including the Metallurgical Corp. of China Ltd (MCC) which has held talks with the Taliban administration, as well as the previous Western-backed government, over plans for a potentially huge copper mine. “China, which invests all over the world, should also invest in Afghanistan… we have everything they need, such as lithium, copper and iron,” Azizi said. “Afghanistan is now, more than ever, ready for investment.”
Afghanistan’s inclusion in BRI and CPEC got an impetus when on May 28, 2023, Pakistan’s foreign ministry in a statement stated that “The two sides agreed to continue their humanitarian and economic assistance for the Afghan people and enhance development cooperation in Afghanistan, including through extension of CPEC to Afghanistan.” Furthermore, according to the Silk Road briefing, “The Taliban have also expressed hopes for China to boost investments in the country’s rich resources, estimated to be worth US$1 trillion.
The Taliban signed its first China contract in January this year with Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company (CAPEIC), a subsidiary of China National Petroleum (CNPC). Worth US$541 million, the agreement is a 25-year contract to extract oil from more than 1,700 square miles of the Amu Darya basin in Afghanistan and provides the Taliban with a 20% stake for no investment, involvement or risk”.
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza while writing in The Diplomat issue of October 19, 2023: “On October 17 and 18, leaders, delegations and representatives from more than 130 countries gathered in Beijing for the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, also marking the 10th anniversary of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious global infrastructure and energy initiative.
Among the invited was a Taliban delegation from Afghanistan led by acting Minister for Commerce and Industry Haji Nooruddin Azizi”. “Azizi also held discussions in Beijing on plans to build a road through the Wakhan corridor, in northern Afghanistan, to provide direct access to China.
However, what is of prime importance to both countries is the possible extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan. While all these projects look potentially promising, with the current state of affairs in the country, none are expected to come to fruition any time soon.” China expects to make full use of Afghanistan’s $ 1 trillion untapped mineral resources and Beijing doesn’t care about criticism on the Taliban regime of its exclusive mode of governance namely the absence of political pluralism and denying women’s right to education and employment. One needs to analyze the BRI Forum and Afghanistan’s accommodation in the Belt and Road Initiative along with CPEC from two angles. First, the focus of Chinese leadership is to sustain BRI in order to make sure that an alternate world order based on multi-polarity is ensured disregarding Western/Indian criticism on Beijing’s support to the Taliban regime in joining the initiative.
Adhering to the basic characteristics of soft power, China is using BRI to deepen its influence in different parts of the world through investments, sharing of technology, expertise, and experience in seeking the status of the world’s second-largest economy.
Second, by seeking China’s support in joining BRI and CPEC, the Taliban regime is determined to gain legitimacy despite being excluded from the international diplomatic community. Afghanistan is hopeful that with the support of China and Russia, it will gain international recognition and legitimacy.
It shows that China’s approach is positive and pragmatic in dealing with geo-political realities like the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. By engaging the Taliban, China hopes to help the process of transformation in Kabul so that an inclusive government as agreed in the Doha accord of 2020 is established. All in all, BRI and the inclusion of Afghanistan in that initiative can be termed as fundamental changes in Central, West, and South Asia. Yet, it depends on how the Taliban regime is able to fully implement the Doha accord and prevent Afghanistan from being used as a hub of terrorism.
The writer is a Meritorious Professor of International Relations and former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi, Karachi.
Well written