Hope all is well and everyone and their loved ones are safe. I was looking at army’s institutional challenges in view of additional complications coming up on the road. I have summarized below three challenges based on my own work and would like to have your view on the subject matter if you feel comfortable commenting; This is not for publication but for in house discussion with some senior officers looking beyond individuals and at institutional interests. Off course, you are free to share it with anyone you feel appropriate.
Judiciary Justice Qazi Faiz Issa issue is not done yet. Many in PTI advocated to let it go now that Supreme Court bench has given its verdict. However, law minister fearing for his own head (remarks of some judges give an indication) has convinced Imran Khan (IK) to re-argue the issue and possibly another reference against Justice Isa. Among legal community there is perception that Law Minister is representing GHQ and taking a cue from political leaders to push back against army leadership decided to send its own warning shot.
Baluchistan high court (BHC) is completely biased against the army and in this fully supported by the bar. Earlier during the hearings of Justice Isa case, Baluchistan Bar Council had threatened to break away from Pakistan Bar Council if Isa was ousted. A unanimous judgement against Quetta DHA (later set side by Supreme Court) was another shot. Now, a lawyer has sent a petition to BHC asking under what legal authority LG Asim Bajwa is working as head of CPEC as presidential ordinance has lapsed.
If a new round of inquisition starts against Justice Isa then I expect some more shots from legal community and the most dangerous will be entertainment of petitions about missing persons and internment centers. My personal view is that army should back away from Justice Isa case and let next Chief try to salvage the situation with the hope that Justice Isa does not do hara kiri in 2023. In the absence of that I see a possible constitutional crisis in 2023. Right from the start, I was against opening a front against judiciary based on some observations by judges that had no practical impact on the army.
Officer Corps Public naming of senior officers in controversies will have impact on management of senior brass. I’m strongly against senior officers doing everything with their own hands. Many controversies could have been easily avoided if junior officers or in case of ISI retired contract officers were given such tasks (i.e. Faiz Hamid signing the TLP contract, DG Rangers handing money to protestors; a task which a Havildar could have easily done). In case of problem, retired/junior officer can be eased out with less negative fallout for the army.
Chief is partly to blame for this mindset as he is meeting everyone and his cousin. He should have assigned such tasks to a junior officer to represent GHQ. Chief is now in a bind. If he promotes and posts these officers to important positions, institution will take more hits and if any compromise is being worked out with PML-N, it will have impact on these negotiations. On the other hand, if he sidelines these officers to create a firewall for the institution, he will have few disgruntled senior officers on the fences.
He pulled out MG Omar Bukhari from IGP Sindh issue with no injury. He is a good officer and his posting as Commandant PMA tells me that he is still a top contender for third star. As memories are short and his name was not given prominence, therefore his elevation and important posting may not generate much controversy. DG CI ISI, MG Irfan Malik after his alleged ‘crushed’ statement has been sidelined for now and we will see what happens in next round of shuffle. LG Faiz Hamid’s position has been weakened and his appointment as Corps Commander in next shuffle will make sure that he will be in the news.
LG Asif Ghafoor had his own share of controversies as DGISPR. He was simply the messenger but became controversial. IK has sympathetic corner for him and if he convinces General Bajwa to appoint him DG ISI that will be disaster for ISI & army. He should be kept at his present post to complete his tenure. Institutional interests sometimes require human sacrifice and in my view the last three officers should be sacrificed on the altar. Disclaimer: I have no dog in this fight. I have no personal acquaintance, likes or dislikes of five senior most officers in line for selection of top slot ion 2022. IK has now become the wild card. He has not shown extreme animosity against PPP but he has a bug in his bonnet about PML-N.
This is foundation of his political rhetoric. He is a political animal with narcissistic personality and will not own his own mistakes. He is not happy about the army’s overtures towards Shahbaz Sharif. If pushed beyond a certain limit, he will throw army under the bus. He will blame army brass for rescuing the corrupt opposition politicians (cherry on top will be claiming that he refused army’s wish to go soft on India). In fact, handling of IK will be more difficult that dealing with master of intrigues Asif Zardari and PML-N.
Pulling the political rug from under his feet will require wholesale re-embrace of PPP and some accommodation with PML-N; pretty bad optics for the army. Continued full support to IK for possible next term means army sharing the blame for failures of his government. Next Chief will have a very difficult task at his hands to meet these challenges. Three years tenure of Chief is a blessing and best instrument to safe guard institutional interest as new Chief can sweep the slate clean and start over again. Tinkering with it by extension has seen reputations ruined and institution badly bruised.
Army’s pre-eminence was accepted by everyone in the country and it was able to achieve most of its objectives without taking direct control. It was ankle deep in politics and that was manageable as one only had to change the boots and keep uniform clean. Marching right into the mud of the political pig pen was not a smart move as dirt has splashed all over the uniform. Now, uniform needs to be changed and washed. This is now the challenge for the next Chief. Political engineering project was a bad move as far institution is concerned and way back in 2016, I strongly opposed it as it was being conceived and implemented as a rigged staff college exercise.
I can understand the reasons forwarded for such project as prevailing sentiment was that the ship is sinking and we have to do something; in my view an exaggerated perception. Gathering horses and donkeys; old and new under new umbrella and expecting revolutionary changes in governance was naïve. “What all the wise men promised has not happened and what all the dammed fools said would happen has come to pass”.
Lord Melbourne.