Russo-Indian $ 5.5 billion deal to buy S-400 Triumf air defense systems was blessed by India’s Committee on Security during Russian President’s last yatra to New Delhi. SA-21 Growler as S-400 is known in NATO and other Russian air defence systems are ‘supposedly’ the best in the world. Indians have spent this whopping sum on the Growlers to enhance their strategic reach and effectively take care of destroying nuclear capable missiles from Pakistan and to a lesser degree from China.
As world’s most advanced interceptor-based long range air defense system, Growler is capable of firing a variety of different missiles, including the 40N6 surface to air missile (SAM). The export variant of the missile is designated is estimated to have an operational range of 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) and is capable of destroying targets at a phenomenal altitude of 30 kilometers. It is enabled against stealth fighters, flies at the remarkable speed of Mach 15 and can engage a target as low as 5 meters, and is capable of engaging ballistic missiles flying at 4800 meters/second.
Its surveillance radar is capable of simultaneously tracking hundreds of incoming targets and destroying 80 inbound targets concurrently. The S-400 battery has four transporter erector launchers (TEL), which are essentially missile vehicles. There are four launch tubes in each TEL. The system also includes a fire control radar and a command post that allows it to fire SAMs and eliminate incoming missile or aircraft, thus creating an air defense shield.
India is expected to receive the first S-400 regiment by 2020. Russian state-owned arms maker Almaz-Antey expects a 15 percent down payment, upon the conclusion of the deal. According to a defense source, the contract will not contain an offset clause in order to expedite delivery of the S-400 air defense systems.
The U.S. expressed its discomfort on the Growler deal and signaled slapping sanctions by invoking its Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) that came into effect in January 2018. However, fearing losing a strategic ally in South Asia, Washington decided not to even slap India on the wrist.
Interestingly, Chinese were swiftly sanctioned in September 2018 for buying S-400. President Trump shall help India dodge these sanctions by employing the provisions of National Defense Authorization Act-2019, waiving off section 231 of CAATSA.
This runs against ‘America First’ policy of favoring its interests over global concerns. Plus prevailing South Asian strategic environment, specifically between the U.S. and Pakistan, also factor in. A waiver would tantamount to a direct move against Pakistan’s strategic interests. However, extension of Strategic Trade Authorisation-1 (STA-1) status to India and relative calm in U.S. policy circles over the deal is indicative that they have little concern and regard about growing South Asian strategic instabilities. This makes one wonder if a stable South Asia is in their interest.
India embarked upon its indigenous development of air defense systems in 1990s. Ever-since India has also acquired such systems from Israel and U.S. Nonetheless it seems that Chinese acquisition and deployment of S-400 systems from Russia may have intensified India’s quest for S-400, in order to match Chinese capability and to counter Pakistan’s ballistic missiles, MIRV and other strategic capabilities. Though the Chinese might have prima facie hastened Indian acquisition of S-400 systems, both countries seem to have shown no desire to escalate tensions post Doklam.
However, it’s not the same case with Pakistan. India has been overtly pursuing the option of a ‘limited war under nuclear overhang’ and is engaged in sub-conventional hybrid war to bleed Pakistan. Operation Parakaram precipitated a need to come up with a new war fighting strategy. Cold Start seemed to have caught the imagination of Indian policy makers in 2004.
This pre-emptive limited war doctrine has off late matured into Pro Active Operations Strategy (PAS) and is being sold as a ‘defensive measure.’ Cold Start Doctrine postulates the notion of ‘hit and mobilize,’ whilst exploiting mobilization differential between India and Pakistan. In pre-2004 period, India used to take over a month to mobilize its forces at a frustrating cost. Now, the bulk of its forces are positioned close to Pakistan in a ready-to-go mode.
In the dangerous Cold Start India envisages using air arm as the predominant tool, resort to gradual assembly, launch multiple thrusts with Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) from deployed formations and exploit success through synergistic application of reserve forces available in that theatre. The interesting assumption is that the operations would remain well below Pakistan’s perceived nuclear threshold. This huge risk is supported by the bluster that India shall massively retaliate should Pakistan go for a flexible and localized nuclear response against Cold Start.
Acquisition of S-400 will significantly embolden Indian tendency to go for pre-emptive Cold Start Doctrine or even nuclear pre-emption. With hawks at the helm of Indian affairs, the risks of pre-emption and nuclear escalation are very high. The ballistic missile defence shield has lulled Indians to believe that there is space for war this is a dangerous lullaby indeed.
Besides other risks, deployment of S-400 BMD systems may also make ‘surgical strike’ fiction a reality. One wonders, if Indians have really weighed the costs and benefits of such Samson options. Likewise, it is equally bewildering that the strategic arms suppliers have thrown all caution regarding regional stability to wind and have chosen to engage in profitable businesses.
S-400 shall give India will provide deep reach inside Pakistan, forcing latter to re-think its strategies, redraw plans and revisit methodology to defeat this nascent threat. Besides several defensive measures, Pakistan’s offset strategy would be to build redundancy in numbers, enhance cyber warfare capabilities to neutralize hostile radars and weapon platforms, deployment of decoys en-masse, enhance stand-off capability and polish its cruise missiles and MIRV capabilities of ballistic missiles.
Rummaging the South Asian history book indicates that some powers will overlook the Indian actions and provocations and shall focus on Pakistan’s minimal and restrained counter measures. In two years to delivery of first S-400 system provides ample opportunity and time to Pakistan for addressing this seemingly bourgeoning imbalance. Pakistan should deal with this threat effectively and ensure credible deterrence till Indian behaviour does not stabilize.
Edgar Felix is an M Phil in Strategic and Nuclear Studies and is Masters in Defence and Strategic Studies. He can be reached at edgarfelixpk@yahoo.com.