By Andrew Korybko
Prominent international relations scholar Robert D. Kaplan published a thought-provoking piece in the Foreign Policy magazine earlier this week about why “America needs to talk about a China reset.” He argues that while none of their issues can be easily solved which includes the South China Sea, trade, ideology, and cyber security they must urgently seek to regulate their relations.
Kaplan advises that “the next administration will have to move the U.S.-Chinese rivalry from a pre-Cuban missile crisis environment to a post-Cuban missile crisis environment, without having to go through the harrowing danger of the Cuban missile crisis itself.” This is a very visionary proposal that might not be politically popular in America nowadays but is desperately needed to safeguard global security.
Kaplan notes that U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden’s sparring during the first debate over who would be tougher on China if they win next month’s election makes his suggestion more important than ever. He arguably has a point since the world cannot afford any further intensification of their rivalry as it is struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the many global systemic disruptions catalyzed by the international community’s uncoordinated response to it.
It should be kept in mind that any “reset,” as he calls it, mustn’t go the way of the Obama administration’s failed attempt at resetting relations with Russia. That approach ultimately failed after the U.S. refused to seriously respect Russia’s pressing national security interests, especially those in what Moscow refers to as its “near abroad,” or the former Soviet Republics.
Since the term “reset” is still associated with that unsuccessful policy, it might have been better had Kaplan used a different term. For that reason, it’s proposed that any comprehensive regulation of Chinese-American relations be referred to as a “new detente” instead since that concept more accurately encapsulates the spirit of what the respected academic is proposing.
Now is the perfect moment for a new detente between China and the U.S. As Kaplan pointed out with his provocative comparison, bilateral relations are presently in an immensely dangerous pre-Cuban missile crisis environment that must transition to a post-crisis one without going through the crisis of nuclear brinkmanship.
Whereas the Cold War’s most dramatic crisis occurred in the Caribbean, the South China Sea might play a similar role sometime in the future amid the rising tensions between China and the U.S. For that reason, it must be the geopolitical focal point of any new detente. Whoever wins next month’s election should consider the most pragmatic way to regulate their rivalry in this global waterway.
It would be extremely helpful if the result of their negotiations was an agreement for the U.S. to demilitarize the Quad platform between itself, Australia, India, and Japan in order for it to concentrate more on economic cooperation instead of military confrontation. In that vein, cooperation with China would do wonders for restoring goodwill and trust between all sides. It could also result in taking economic ties between all parties to the next level.
For example, the U.S. pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) right after Trump entered office, and India withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations late last year. If the Quad try to be on more friendly terms with China, then this could improve commercial and investment relations between the People’s Republic, America, and India. Although their inclusion into a mega trade bloc linking together the RCEP countries is unrealistic for now, the groundwork would certainly be established for coordinating policy between all three.
If their economic rivalry is regulated as a result of first regulating their military one in the South China Sea through the Quad’s demilitarization, then global stability would immensely improve. This would, in turn, allow all parties to focus more on their post-COVID-19 recoveries and assisting other countries across the world who are still struggling in the face of this pandemic. Therefore, the proposed “new détente” would stabilize international relations by pulling the world back from the brink of a “new Cold War” at least long enough to ensure that it never goes nuclear.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author’s views and not necessarily those of CGTN.