Bassam Javed
Marc Grossman, the US point man for Afghanistan and Pakistan visited Islamabad last month for providing a fresh breather to the stalled US-Pakistan relationship. The talks apparently failed as he returned to US without a worth while agreement on issues that had tumbled an otherwise working relationship. A privy to the talks said that Pakistan’s conditions for US apology and cessation of drone attacks, two of the pre-conditions set out by PCNS recommendations for re-calibrating ties with US, were not agreed to by the US envoy citing its improbability for being the election year in US. US State Department has acknowledged that talks on the conditions set by PCNS may not yield any agreement soon. A series of meetings have since taken place between the top Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership to look for a middle ground on the apology issue. One of the probabilities discussed was a mutually agreed text of a written apology by the US. Pakistan seeks US apology on killing twenty-four of its finest soldiers through a savage attack on Pakistani check post at Salala.
The stand taken by US administration over the apology issue indicates that Obama may have a different plan on Afghanistan and the region. The wrapping up of US-Afghanistan ‘strategic partnership agreement’ by Obama and Karzai in the midst of one of April’s dark night has provided US an ample space to maneuver on strength of troops to be deployed in Afghanistan beyond 2014. US troops’ operations would need intelligence network support besides a sizable number of personal arms, ground and air military platforms to defend themselves against Taliban onslaughts and launching attacks against insurgents in Afghanistan and tribal areas with Pakistan.
The ‘agreement’ confirms to an enduring presence of US troops beyond 2014 for a decade and even more wherein Kabul will be obliged to facilitate US operations with accesses to Afghan facilities. From a bird’s eye-view US does not appear to be desperate on immediate opening of Afghan supply lines through Pakistan but criticality of the same is cited for materializing US withdrawal from Afghanistan. There are talks of UN regulations on essential provision of transit routes by a country to reach a third country which could be played on with by the US. These resolutions do support transits for civilian development of a land locked country but at the same time hold no bar on levying taxes on the goods transiting through host country.
Pakistan has decided to attend the forth coming NATO Summit at the invitation of President Obama. President Zardari will represent Pakistan. Indian leadership has also been invited. The occasion will provide the leaders to interact with each other for a smoother 2014 withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. For the US, keeping Pakistan on board all Afghan related developments is an essential element of its strategy that vies for shaping up new blocks for trade between South and Central Asia with Afghanistan as the centre of these trade activities through a new initiative commonly referred to as ‘Great Silk Road’. Besides this, Pakistan will also be needed to exert influence on Taliban somehow to accede to US long term presence in Afghanistan and also to bring them to the negotiating table.
Now that the ‘strategic agreement’ has been signed Pakistan on its part has to accept the reality and may have to work out a strategy of its own that can minimize violence and terror that may continue as eventual fall out of US long term presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Some analysts opine that eventually US long term plans in Afghanistan may turn out to the advantage of Pakistan as it can accrue many advantages out of it for being the conduit of US goods through its transit lanes. But with so much desired out of Pakistan the often outrageous proclamations by US officials on Pakistan tend to hinder efforts to resurrect bilateral relationship. Hillary Clinton, who is otherwise considered a seasoned diplomat and a friend of Pakistan, landed in India on 6th of May and declared that Al-Qaeda’s Ayman Al-Zawaheri is in Pakistan and that US stands by India on Hafiz Saeed. Her comments have reduced the otherwise resurgent Pakistani confidence on rebuilding ties with the US. No matter, statement on Hafiz Saeed qualifying with provision of actionable evidence clearly indicates that it was made to appease Indians however her statement on Al-Qaeda’s top man being in Pakistan was without any proof.
It immediately evoked reaction from Islamabad wherein its foreign minister opined that US is morally bound to provide intelligence on him if it has any. It also prompted architect of PCNS Chairman to assert on his recommendations as justified in the face of continued US verbal assaults on Pakistan. These damaging statements involving Pakistan reflects immense confusion in the US administration on how to move ahead with Pakistan. Nevertheless, Marc Grossman definitely succeeded in breaking the ice between the two countries. Both the countries are talking now. Representatives on both sides are talking out the finer points of PCNS guided bilateral relationship. Both the countries know very well that they cannot do without each other especially in the context of Afghan imbroglio. There is a hope that President Zardari, who will be attending NATO Summit in Chicago, may meet Obama then which may provide a new impetus in efforts to put the much needed bilateral ties back on track.