By Gohar Zaidi
Second strike capability is a capability of a country to retaliate even after losing all its land and heavy casualty of human beings and then nuclear naval forces of attacked country surfaced by a nuclear attack through submarines. For this instance, the retaliation will usually be done by sea-based nuclear projectiles mounted on a submarine. Before going any further first let’s clear one general misconception regarding deterrence that is deterrence is a greatly linked with defense which is certainly wrong. As Kenneth Waltz argues that;
“Defense and deterrence are often confused. One frequently hears statements like this: ‘a strong defense in Europe will deter a Russian attack’. What is meant by this is that a strong defene will dissuade Russian from attacking. Deterrence is achieved not through the ability to defend but through the ability to punish. Purely deterrent forces provide no defense. The message of a deterrent strategy is this: ‘although we are defenseless, if you attack we will punish you to an extent that more than cancels your gains’. Second Strike nuclear forces serve that kind of strategy”.
Now that the misconception is addressed we can take a further step in discussing on whether Second Strike capability be one major reason of Nuclear Deterrence! A theory during the Cold War between the United States and USSR was the idea that two hostile states both having the Nuclear strike capabilities wont risk to attack each other as the other state will be able to retaliate having second strike capability which will lead the world towards a Nuclear War.
This idea was seen to be correct during the Cold War when U.S and USSR were on a brink of Nuclear War over the Cuban Missile Crisis. United States has its nukes deployed in Turkey. As a response USSR moved its nuclear warheads in Cuba. There were some very tense moments between the two states but the idea of Nuclear War was neutralized after some diplomacy and agreements. This event illustrated that the ability of Second Strike by both hostile states was the reason in stopping both from attacking each other.
However, the critic to this idea argue that even after having second strike capability, it won’t stop two hostile states in jumping into a war. It was also said that had USSR didn’t lost a huge amount of lives in World War II, USSA would not have feared a nuclear attack and would have easily waged war over the Cuban Missile Crisis.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” (Sun Tzu) In the contemporary world of nuclear deterrence, the possibility of conventional war has gone low because of the fear of a conventional war to escalate. The states with nuclear capabilities are threatening as well as deterring each other by making advancement in their nuclear weapons, whether it be ballistic or cruise missiles or other advancement in the technology.
The universally known three C’s of deterrence i.e. capability, credibility and communication are enhanced and upgraded by the nuclear power states over the years including the South Asian states. Particularly Pakistan and India, both are strengthening their cruise missiles and short-range missiles catalogue in order to counter each other and neutralize any threat to their national security and defense.
There have been several wars between Pakistan and India since their independence. But both have not engaged in war with each other since their last war in 1971 which led to East-Pakistan split. But since then no conventional war has been fought between these two states. A reason of which is also nuclear attack capability. In 1998 after the successful test of nuclear bomb by Pakistan and India both states become nuclear which stopped both states in waging war.
On 8th Jan, 2017 Pakistan successfully tested its first nuclear missile Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile, which made Pakistan a Second Strike Capable state, making it easy for herself to deter to any Indian attempt of nuclear aggression. Both India and Pakistan are now second strike capable states and have been away from war since 1971 even after many years of animosity. This also might be taken as one of the benefit of the use of nuclear weapons in deterrence in order to create a peaceful and nuclear balanced international system. Still critics do not agree on this idea of nuclear deterrence, it is seen a very sound idea to many people even those of the realist school of thought.
Let’s hope this nuclear deterrence works out well in stopping states to jump in wars with each other and let’s hope second strike capability benefits in preventing the world from seeing a nuclear war.