By Sikandar Ali Solangi
The year 1945 chan ged the strategic dimensions of the world. Nuclear weapons altered the world politics, which triggered the arm race between the big powers i.e. USA and USSR now Russia. After the adventure of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, world realized the consequences of use of Nuclear weapons.
Due to imaginations of destructive picture of japan, USA and USSR were able to avoid nuclear war. During Cuban missile crisis both countries were at the brink of nuclear war however, fear of second strike capability deter them to act rationally, during this time there was not sophisticated technology, advanced and modernized nuclear weapons, ICBMs, and modernized Missile system as world have today. Today’s nuclear weapons are 200 times more dangerous than that used in 1945.
South Asian region is one of the most volatile and a dangerous region of the world, where three nuclear weapons states possesses nuclear weapons. Since inception Pakistan and India are at war both countries have fought three major wars, even present time is full of tense and unwanted situations. Ever since, their Nuclearization, both India and Pakistan constantly looking in the arm race, Pakistan being cautious.
The ration between India and Pakistan is 3:1 in missile tests. Indian’s launch of the nuclear capable ballistic missiles posing gruesome challenges country is continuously trying to upgrade its nuclear missile system via air, land and sea based avenues. Significant developments took place during 2017 the acquisition of sophisticated nuclear technologies, missile testing, the introduction of the new delivery system and improved payload, ranges, accuracy and reliability of missiles programs reflects the changing of nuclear policy and trends in south Asia. India’s weapons build and modernization of its nuclear programs supported by west particularly US in order to accomplish the dream of hegemony in Indian Ocean and south Asia. China and Pakistan hinders this design.
India, has not only pursuing developing an active nuclear and missile development programs and Ballistic missile Defense (BMD) programs together with equipping and modernizing its conventional forces. From its conventional war fare doctrines to the development of Seas-based nuclear capability and its vague doctrine of No First Use policy, all these measures have destabilized regional strategic equilibrium again and again.
In order to ensure survival against Indian intentions and actions Pakistan has been left no choice except to counter India with credible minimum deterrence posture at all spectrums of any conflicts. In response to Indian naval nuclear capability, Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear capability was inevitable. On January 9, 2018, Pakistan successfully conducted the test of Babur-3 a submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM) with range of 450 kilometers, another significant development took palace on April 14, 2018, Pakistan successfully conducted test of an enhanced range version of Babur Cruise missile.
Babur weapon system-1 (B) incorporated advance aerodynamics and avionics that could strike targets both at land and sea with high accuracy, at a range of 700 kilometers, ISPR told. The important aspect of this missile program is that it gives Pakistan an equal footing on sea-based nuclear second strike capability against India. Pakistan possesses six other delivery mechanisms which are capable of keeping credible minimum deterrence.
Now Pakistan can carry second strike against India through sea water. The missile test ensures not only credible second strike capability but also restores strategic balance which was disturbed by Indian test fired nuclear capable K4 submarine Launched Ballistic Missile with range of 3000-3500 KMs, in March 2016. Moreover, India is also intends to develop three to six Arihant class nuclear submarine which can carry K-4 and K-5 SLBMS.
Both India and Pakistan have second strike capability which create deterrence against each other thus, both countries try to avoid full fledge war, for three decades no major war took place due to fear of second strike, however, India shows immaturity by developing and upgrading its nuclear program.
Further, India tried to bully Pakistan of seizing its nuclear weapons, nevertheless, this dream of India could not be materialized now because, Pakistan has also achieved sea-based nuclear capability which cannot be detected by any technology.
India’s actions and upgrading of their nuclear program has been compelling and pushing Pakistan to modernize its nuclear program, thus, Indian ambitions has tried to trigger arm race in the region which can proved to be disastrous for the region of south Asia.
India always tried to disturb strategic stability in the region in order to maintain its hegemony and influence in the region. Still, India is aspiring to be the member of NSG which could disturb strategic balance of the region.
In conclusion, Pakistan always believed in credible minimum deterrence however, Indian modernization and upgrading of its nuclear program compels Pakistan to modernize its nuclear program. Recently Pakistan also conducted sea-based nuclear submarine in response to Indian sea-based nuclear capability in order to restore strategic balance in the region and to ensure its second strike capability, this can intensified arm race in the region.
Therefore, we need to develop a mechanism in order to avoid arm race which can turn into nuclear war. For that India and Pakistan need to work on confidence building measures and have to shun nuclear arm race. Only through negotiation and mediation we can avoid any miscalculation and can avoid any accidental nuclear war.